Poker, Innovation and Identity Management

Professional poker players are, at heart, game theorists who are always thinking about Expected Value (EV). Essentially, there are a finite number of scenarios (i.e., poker hands) and each has a theoretical Expected Value which will most likely translate into the actual outcome over a statistically significant sample size - in poker terms, typically 50,000 hands. Maximising EV is the key to optimal winning poker (note: the least negative option can be optimal too). Folding your cards is always neutral EV, but can often represent lost opportunity. Delayed IT Purchasing Decisions, cancelled projects or doomed initiatives allowed to continue too long all have an EV to the Business.

In his book, Experimentation Matters, Stefan Thomke of Harvard Business School, argues that every company's ability to innovate depends on a series of experiments [successful or not], that help create new products and services or improve old ones. That period between the earliest point in the design cycle and the final release should be filled with experimentation, failure, analysis, and yet another round of experimentation. I would posit that for each of these “experiments” predicting Expected Value would allow us to prioritise and manage our investments.

Applying this to Identity Management, I see way too many organisations, when appreciating the potential value of an effective Identity Management outcome, set out on an initiative doomed to failure. The tentacles of Identity reach far and wide and the complexity creeps up on the project exponentially. The initiative grows bigger than “Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix” and the under-estimation of the Design Phases causes corners to be cut in the interests of “delivering something”. In my experience, targeted experimentation would have more effectively highlighted in advance the true potential and scope.

Today, a window of opportunity may be closing! Oracle is about to acquire Sun Microsystems. Both happen to possess leading Identity Management Suites (generally regarded as insignificant in terms of the acquisition). The biggest difference between them, in my opinion, is the fact that one can be downloaded and run in production for free using Sun’s adoption-led model. This is an ideal scenario for experimentation where the investment required is simply the cost of working out what you want to do and doing it. As an experiment, it need not be documented to the nth degree, simply made functional to solicit stakeholder feedback. Obviously, if you are already licenced for an Identity Suite you have the same luxury.

My challenge to you, if you are considering a significant Identity Management initiative, is to define 10 experiments, that can each be conducted in less than 10 days for under $10,000 with a cumulative Positive Expected Value. Once complete, the likelihood is that your ROI will have been rapid and you will be ideally positioned to consider and deliver on that low-risk multi-million dollar opportunity. Impossible? Think again. That’s Innovation!

The easiest steps often make the biggest difference

Today I awoke to a green lawn outside my window. Nothing unusual for most people but when you have been building a home for a few years held up by council inertia and red tape and embark on a landscaping project that takes 4-6 months instead of the 4-6 week estimate, green grass is a welcome sight.

The good news and the bad news is that I can't actually reach it without walking through what can only be described as a sand dune. The landscapers intelligently started from the back of the garden with retaining walls etc so whilst that stage is finished, it isn't actually usable. Regardless, I can look at it, so the user interface is sufficiently complete to bring happiness.

We've heard all the analogies before, so I won't labour the comparisons with IT projects. Just to say, please remember to congratulate the poor old systems integrator who built the drainage, the retaining walls, made all of the measurements and carried the blocks and timber. Who went to TAFE to acquire the skills and went through an apprenticeship to acquire the necessary experiential learning.

Yesterday's task was rolling out turf that was delivered on pallets. My experience was a culmination of 4 months hard work by a very decicated team though.

Next time that you get resistance to changing an error message or screen font on your provisioning system, please spare a thought for the plumbing that may be connected to it.

A world in crisis?

I appreciate that a lot of people are worried about the turmoil on financial markets. Concensus would indicate that there are tough times ahead. What can we do about it? Incrementally improve our collective situation by doing the right thing, one step at a time.

I am very optimistic for the future of the world on the eve of an historic US Election. It won't be overnight, but by tapping into the optimism and ingenuity of Gen-Y and the experience of Gen-X I believe that we have the capacity to look after those in retirement and in need, while shaping the world for future generations.

One of my fears for modern society has been the erosion of privacy and I'm trying to incrementally improve this situation, one enterprise at a time. As Beth Givens stated "Victims of Identity Theft are the collateral damage of our diabolical business models". Like poverty, this is an unnecessary affliction and one that we can change.

The blogosphere is full of energy and wisdom on this subject. Academically, the technological challenges are essentially solved. It is now time to put our overalls on and get down to business.

Starting out ...

Cliche - a phrase, expression, or idea that has been overused to the point of losing its intended force or novelty, nonetheless -

Identity is a Journey.

... and so I embark upon this Identity Management blogging journey such that fellow travellers may say hello, leave pointers to interesting paths ahead, share ideas when paths cross, call out for help when lost, just keep me company as we meander together or abuse me from afar.

As I ponder the ever changing environment, my impressions and opinions will be subject to change and are certainly not the views of my long time employer, Agreon.

To my colleagues, clients and partners who have afforded me my experiences - thank you all very much. I wish I had a blog to remind me of the journey so far. Hopefully, this record of the future will be a pleasant and rewarding read for you. Either way, please feel free to comment.