Poker, Innovation and Identity Management

Professional poker players are, at heart, game theorists who are always thinking about Expected Value (EV). Essentially, there are a finite number of scenarios (i.e., poker hands) and each has a theoretical Expected Value which will most likely translate into the actual outcome over a statistically significant sample size - in poker terms, typically 50,000 hands. Maximising EV is the key to optimal winning poker (note: the least negative option can be optimal too). Folding your cards is always neutral EV, but can often represent lost opportunity. Delayed IT Purchasing Decisions, cancelled projects or doomed initiatives allowed to continue too long all have an EV to the Business.

In his book, Experimentation Matters, Stefan Thomke of Harvard Business School, argues that every company's ability to innovate depends on a series of experiments [successful or not], that help create new products and services or improve old ones. That period between the earliest point in the design cycle and the final release should be filled with experimentation, failure, analysis, and yet another round of experimentation. I would posit that for each of these “experiments” predicting Expected Value would allow us to prioritise and manage our investments.

Applying this to Identity Management, I see way too many organisations, when appreciating the potential value of an effective Identity Management outcome, set out on an initiative doomed to failure. The tentacles of Identity reach far and wide and the complexity creeps up on the project exponentially. The initiative grows bigger than “Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix” and the under-estimation of the Design Phases causes corners to be cut in the interests of “delivering something”. In my experience, targeted experimentation would have more effectively highlighted in advance the true potential and scope.

Today, a window of opportunity may be closing! Oracle is about to acquire Sun Microsystems. Both happen to possess leading Identity Management Suites (generally regarded as insignificant in terms of the acquisition). The biggest difference between them, in my opinion, is the fact that one can be downloaded and run in production for free using Sun’s adoption-led model. This is an ideal scenario for experimentation where the investment required is simply the cost of working out what you want to do and doing it. As an experiment, it need not be documented to the nth degree, simply made functional to solicit stakeholder feedback. Obviously, if you are already licenced for an Identity Suite you have the same luxury.

My challenge to you, if you are considering a significant Identity Management initiative, is to define 10 experiments, that can each be conducted in less than 10 days for under $10,000 with a cumulative Positive Expected Value. Once complete, the likelihood is that your ROI will have been rapid and you will be ideally positioned to consider and deliver on that low-risk multi-million dollar opportunity. Impossible? Think again. That’s Innovation!